Israel Will NOT Annex The Jordan Valley Tomorrow. Here’s Why.
To say there has been an uproar about Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to annex the Jordan Valley on July 1st is an understatement. “Days of rage” are planned across the US, some European states are threatening sanctions, and the Palestinians are threatening war. But, all of this uproar is not only unfounded, but preplanned. The annexation will be foiled by the man who proposed it in the first place: Benjamin Netanyahu.
Now at this point, you are probably thinking “Netanyahu has been championing the annexation of settlement blocs and the Jordan Valley for years. Why would he stop now when he is finally at the finish line?” Simple. Netanyahu knew from the beginning that he would never go through with it. He manufactured this crisis in a stunningly cunning way. To understand why he would do such a thing, we need to look at three different characteristics. 1, Netanyahu’s behavioural traits; 2, internal and external factors and decision makers that directly influence his personal stature and wealth. 3, his actions over the course of his tenure, both his first stint as PM in the 90s and his current term which began in 2009.
Let’s touch on that first point. Agree with him or not, Benjamin Netanyahu is extremely smart. The way he has managed to wriggle himself out of crises and cling on to power is nothing short of extraordinary. However, he does have his kinks, most notably of which is his aversion to taking big, risky decisions and his weakness from external pressure. He is also extremely egotistical, with a Napoleonic complex that makes him truly believe that he is destined and the only one fit to lead the State of Israel. Nobody can replace him in his mind, and if one does replace him, Israel would collapse. Netanyahu is a logical thinker, and makes sure that whatever action he takes will first and foremost benefit him and his personal interests.
What does this have to do with the proposed annexation on July 1st? It is very well known that over the past few years, Netanyahu has been embroiled in corruption allegations that have resulted in his indictment. He was due to start trial earlier this year, but this has been delayed. Netanyahu will of course want to do everything he can to avoid his trial, especially as it seems increasingly likely that he will be found guilty. The easiest way for a politician to do that? Manufacture a crisis that will take as much attention off of the trial as possible. The annexation proposal does just that. Netanyahu correctly calculated that by announcing that he will annex the Jordan Valley on July 1st, will send the Israeli population and world governments into a frenzy, and will change the subject of public discourse away from his trial. This is a win-win for him. Wether he goes through with the annexation or not, nobody is talking about his trial. His position as PM and his freedom for now, are secured.
Israeli public discourse is not the only factor Netanyahu takes into account. He also needs to consider the opinions of world leaders more powerful than himself, namely Donald Trump. Trump and Netanyahu have a relationship bordering on a bromance, where Trump seems to keep granting Netanyahu political favours in order to galvanise his base and keep him in power. However, this relationship has made netanyahu utterly reliant on Trump, to the point where you could almost consider him a puppet. Trumps opinion and policy decisions almost completely dictate Netanyahu’s foreign policy. Whatever Trump says, Netanyahu will make it happen. Emboldened by the recognition of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, Netanyahu thought that Trump would also green light him to annex the Jordan Valley as well. Recent events indicate though, that this is not the case.
Unless you have chosen to turn off the news since the beginning of the pandemic (and I don’t blame you), Donald Trump has some big issues to deal with right now. The complete failure to contain COVID19 in the US, coupled with widespread protests and dismal poll numbers, mean that Trump’s attention is currently preoccupied. Can we really expect Trump in his current position to want to deal with another issue that will arise with annexation? The last thing he needs is an additional problem that is not even in his territory. As such, the discussions within the Trump administration to green light the annexation have yielded no conclusions. Netanyahu has basically lost his only backer in this endeavour.
Netanyahu historically does not deal well with external pressure. In 1998 he signed the Wye River Memorandum with the Palestinian Authority, something that went against all of his stated values. He did so because the US administration at the time pressured Netanyahu in an equivalent of having someone in a chokehold. He had no choice but to give in. The same thing happened in 2009, at the Bar Ilan conference. Now having to deal with Barack Obama, Netanyahu stated publicly that he will work towards a two state solution, again something that he does not believe in. Obama’s pressure at the time seemed to work. The fact that he fumbled with it is more of a sign of Obama’s failures rather than Netanyahu’s smarts, but I digress. As soon as there is external pressure from someone that can influence Netanyahu’s power, he immediately relents.
To conclude, not only will the Netanyahu government not annex the Jordan Valley, it never intended to do so. Will Netanyahu annex a few settlement blocks close to Israel Proper in order to stop his own party eating him up from the inside? Maybe. But the Jordan Valley annexation proposal is nothing more than a manufactured stunt, intended to cause a crisis that will divert attention from the myriad of issues Netanyahu himself is currently facing.
